SG
StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 FY25 delivered resilient results: operating revenues $1.024B (+12% YoY), net operating revenues $488.3M (+4% YoY), net income $63.4M (+2% YoY), and diluted EPS $1.22 (-2% YoY), with EPS reduced by ~$0.12 from $8.9M acquisition-related charges (bridge financing $6.5M, professional fees $2.4M) .
- Mix shift favored Institutional (record net operating revenues and segment income) led by equities; Self-Directed/Retail was strong. Commercial lagged on diminished commodity volatility, tariff uncertainty, and higher metals-related interest costs .
- Strategic catalysts: closed R.J. O’Brien (RJO) on 7/31 (largest non-bank FCM;
$766M revenue/$170M EBITDA in 2024; targeted ~$50M expense saves and ≥$50M capital synergies; ~+$6B client float; EPS/ROE accretive) and closed The Benchmark Company (investment banking/equity research) on 7/31–8/5 . - On S&P Global “Primary EPS” basis, Q3 EPS was above consensus (1.45 actual vs 1.39 est, +$0.06); Street revenue consensus not meaningful for gross “total revenues” at SNEX. Expect estimate revisions to reflect Institutional outperformance and Commercial headwinds (S&P Global data)*.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Record Institutional performance: net operating revenues $200.1M (+27% YoY) and segment income $87.4M (+41% YoY), driven by securities (net operating revenues $119.8M, +48% YoY; RPM +15% YoY) and elevated ADV (+25% YoY) .
- Self-Directed/Retail scaling: net operating revenues $80.6M (+18% YoY) and segment income $41.2M (+49% YoY), with FX/CFD ADV up 34% YoY (RPM stable to slightly down), showcasing operating leverage .
- Strategic expansion closed: “This is a proud moment… positions [StoneX] as the counterparty of choice” (RJO); Benchmark broadens capital markets capabilities and distribution .
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What Went Wrong
- Commercial softness: net operating revenues -24% YoY to $168.3M, with physical contracts -40% YoY and listed/OTC pressure (lower ag volatility; tariff uncertainty disrupted cross-border physical flows) .
- EPS impact from deals financing: $8.9M acquisition costs cut diluted EPS by ~$0.12 in the quarter .
- Overhead and professional fees rose: overhead costs +9% YoY; professional fees within overhead +38% YoY, reflecting integration/activity levels .
Financial Results
Segment operating revenues (YoY and sequential context)
Net operating revenues by product
Key KPIs and operating metrics
Guidance Changes
StoneX did not issue formal quantitative revenue/EPS margin guidance; management discussed acquisition accretion and synergy timing/targets.
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Significant growth in our Institutional segment… and strong performance in Self-Directed/Retail… offset declines in our Commercial businesses due to diminished commodity volatility and tariff related uncertainty… $8.9 million in acquisition-related charges… reduced approximately $0.12 in diluted EPS” — Sean O’Connor .
- “For the quarter net operating revenues increased 4% principally from securities (+$39.3M) and FX/CFDs (+$9.8M), partially offset by declines in physical contracts (-$22.5M), listed (-$8.4M) and OTC (-$7.4M). Interest/fee income on client balances decreased $12.5M.” — CFO Bill Dunaway .
- “RJO… transformational… expected to be materially accretive… We issued
3.1M shares (+6% share count)… integration synergies: 3–6 months international; 9–12 months US.” — Sean O’Connor . - “In Q4, we will broaden our digital asset custody capabilities to include regulated custody for cryptocurrencies, tokenized securities, stablecoins, and real world assets” — Charles Lyon .
Q&A Highlights
- Commercial weakness drivers: tariff uncertainty weighed on physical flows; OTC (ag) spread capture down amid muted ag volatility; added interest expense moving metals cross-border .
- RJO revenue synergies: expected to be multiples of cost synergies over time, focused on cross-selling OTC/structured/physical/logistics to RJO’s commercial/IB clients and combining interest-rate hedging franchise with StoneX fixed income .
- Retail roadmap: infrastructure rebuild completing toward late FY25; phased rollout of securities/listed derivatives for retail through FY26; futures derivatives already expanding .
- Integration phasing: 40–45% of synergies (International) achievable in 3–6 months; US migration 9–12 months due to complexity and client touchpoints .
- Banks in FCMs: no notable posture change or renewed push by large banks into these activities observed .
Estimates Context
- EPS: On S&P Global’s “Primary EPS” basis, Q3 FY25 actual 1.45 vs consensus 1.39 (beat by $0.06); Q2 actual 1.46 vs 1.32 (beat by $0.14); Q1 consensus 1.447 (actual Primary EPS not shown in feed). GAAP diluted EPS reported by the company was $1.22 in Q3, impacted by $0.12 acquisition-related costs; differences versus “Primary EPS” reflect differing methodologies/adjustments . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Revenue: S&P “Revenue” reflects gross total revenues (dominated by physical commodity sales) and did not provide a consensus mean for Q3 in feed; Street typically evaluates SNEX on net operating revenues; thus revenue estimate comparisons are not meaningful this quarter . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
EPS vs S&P Global Consensus (Primary EPS)*
Note: Company-reported diluted EPS were $2.54 (Q1), $1.41 (Q2), and $1.22 (Q3) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix tailwind: Institutional (equities) strength and Retail scaling offset Commercial softness; with RJO/Benchmark, the platform tilts further toward fee/flow businesses with higher durability .
- Tariff risk is the main near-term headwind for Commercial physical and OTC ag; watch policy clarity and ag volatility for a rebound .
- Accretion/setup into Q4: RJO and Benchmark closed post-quarter; synergy capture should start contributing in Q4 with faster International realization and US lag; cost/capital synergy targets are tangible .
- Rate sensitivity remains a lever: ±100 bps ≈ ±$27M NI annualized; however, lower short-term rates pressured client-balance fee income in Q3; balances grew 10% YoY, partly cushioning rates .
- Balance sheet scale expanded (repo/securities lending growth); watch interest expense trajectory as fixed income and securities financing scale .
- Retail roadmap into FY26 (adding securities/listed) and custody/digital assets launch in Q4 support multi-asset cross-sell and ecosystem stickiness .
- Near-term estimate implications: Raise Primary EPS near term (beat), but temper Commercial expectations; securities/retail trajectory and synergy cadence should drive medium-term upward bias (S&P Global data; company commentary)*.
Appendix: Additional Details and Data Points
- Interest expense detail: Total interest expense $391.4M (+22% YoY) with growth in fixed income securities and securities borrowing driving the increase; corporate funding included $6.5M bridge loan fees (RJO financing) .
- Overhead: Overhead costs and expenses $140.4M (+9% YoY); professional fees within overhead +38% YoY .
- Balance sheet: Securities purchased under agreements to resell $8.159B (vs $5.202B Sep-24); securities sold under agreements to repurchase $13.375B (vs $8.581B); stockholders’ equity $1.979B; NAV/share $40.36 .
Footnote: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.